\(y=ax+b\)
\(y=ax+b\)
"[…], Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)"
Meltzer, 2014
What really happened
"[…], Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)"
Meltzer, 2014
"without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million…)"
Meltzer, 2014
"A CDC model […] was key to increasing the speed and scale of the US and global response.
Frieden, 2015
Key findings:
courtesy of Samuel V. Scarpino @svscarpino
Metcalf & Lessler (2017)
WHO Ebola response team (2014)
\(d\log(R_0(t)) = \sigma dW_t\)
Dureau (2013)
Andrieu (2010), Murray (2013)
Meaningful forecasts are probabilistic.
Meaningful forecasts are probabilistic.
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts requires
multiple observations.
Gneiting et al., J R Stat Soc B (2007)
Need methods to select the best model and
combine all available data streams
(individual/spatial/genetic/media)
Louis du Plessis, University of Oxford (unpublished)
Anton Camacho, Adam Kucharski, Roz Eggo, John Edmunds (LSHTM)
Bruce Reeder, Etienne Gignoux, Iza Ciglenecki, Amanda Tiffany (MSF)
James Hensman (Lancaster), Lawrence Murray (Uppsala)
http://sbfnk.github.io
@sbfnk